Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a term used in subtly different ways in a number of fields, including philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, insurance, psychology, sociology, engineering, and information...
Uncertainty - Wikipedia
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Time capsule letter hidden in Sydney home predicts future
A time capsule letter hidden in the wall cavity of a Sydney home over two decades ago predicted Islam would become 'the next ideological problem' and China would grow into a world superpower.
Skydiver To Plummet To Earth With No Parachute Or Wingsuit
There's a good reason people don't throw themselves out of airplanes without parachutes or wingsuits, and that's because it rarely ends well. Skydiver Luke Aikins will be hoping that tomorrow is one o...
20 Gadgets Which Make Life Simpler
Every day, we come up against annoying things that no one has ever found a way to resolve which works all the time. But in some cases, thanks to human ingenuity we are moving towards this. Here are 20...
Revealing the hidden, beautiful patterns of birds and insects
Dennis Hlynsky transforms ordinary footage into ethereal illustrations by digitally tracing the paths they travel in After Effects. Hlynsky, a film and animation professor at the Rhode Island School o...
Risk Taking Across Life Span: The Effects Of Hardship
With increasing age, the propensity to take physical, social, legal or financial risks decreases. Researchers from the University of Basel and the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin ...
An algorithm can predict human behavior better than humans
You might presume, or at least hope, that humans are better at understanding fellow humans than machines are. But a new MIT study suggests an algorithm can predict someone's behavior faster and more r...
Risk: Your Best Friend and Worst Enemy -- The Motley Fool
A few things you should know about it. Risk fills in the gaps between your plans and the relentless power of chance, accident, luck, and misinformation. It sits over your shoulder while you're plannin...
What U.S. Intelligence Predicted the World Would Look Like in 2015
Nine months before the September 11 attacks—and just days after the Supreme Court halted the Florida recount, handing the presidency to George W. Bush—U.S. intelligence officials published an 85-page ...
12 of the worst predictions about the global economy that intelligent people have ever made
Some forecasts just don't age very well. Economic forecasting is a difficult game — get it right, and you'll get not only plaudits, but potentially a lot of money too. But get it wrong, and you'll ne...
Siener van Rensburg: Visions of the Future
What do a Boer’s words from South Africa in 1926 have to say about today’s world? - Nicolaas Pieter Johannes “Siener” van Rensburg (August 30, 1862 - March 11, 1926) was a Boer from the South African ...
25 Factions That Turned Out To Be Wildly Wrong
View 25 Factions That Turned Out To Be Wildly Wrong. All FAILs here.
There Will Be Another Mass Shooting. This Is What the Data Tells Us About It - Philip Bump - The Atlantic Wire
The next mass shooting will take place on February 12, 2014, in Spokane, Washington, committed by an emotionally disturbed, 38 year-old white man who will kill seven people at a place he used to work.
Complex systems - YouTube - TEDxRotterdam - Igor Nikolic - Complex adaptive systems
Igor Nikolic graduated in 2009 on his dissertation: co-evolutionary process for modelling large scale socio-technical systems evolution. He received his MSc ...
Complex systems
Free learning from The Open University http://www.open.ac.uk/openlearn/ --- Open University researcher Professor Jeff Johnson talks of the importance of the ...
Gambling
Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material...
Gambling - Wikipedia
Future
The future is what will happen in the time after the present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics. Due to the apparent nature of reality and the ...
Actuarial science
Actuarial science is the discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk in insurance, finance and other industries and professions. Actuaries are professionals who are qua...
Actuarial science - Wikipedia
Prediction
A prediction (Latin præ-, "before," and dicere, "to say") or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge. While there ...
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at som...
Complex systems
Complex systems present problems both in mathematical modelling and philosophical foundations. The study of complex systems represents a new approach to science that investigates how relationships be...
Financial market
A financial market is a market in which people and entities can trade financial securities, commodities, and other fungible items of value at low transaction costs and at prices that reflect supply an...
Neural network
In machine learning and cognitive science, artificial neural networks (ANNs) are a family of statistical learning algorithms inspired by biological neural networks (the central nervous systems of anim...
Neural network - Wikipedia
Fuzzy logic
Fuzzy logic is a form of many-valued logic that deals with approximate, rather than fixed and exact reasoning. Compared to traditional binary logic (where variables may take on true or false values), ...
Future studies
Futures studies (also called futurology and futurism) is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to wh...
Measurement uncertainty
In metrology, measurement uncertainty is a non-negative parameter characterizing the dispersion of the values attributed to a measured quantity. The uncertainty has a probabilistic basis and reflects ...
Measurement uncertainty - Wikipedia
Uncertainty quantification
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and reduction of uncertainties in applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of...
Uncertainty quantification - Wikipedia
Propagation of uncertainty
In statistics, propagation of uncertainty (or propagation of error) is the effect of variables' uncertainties (or errors) on the uncertainty of a function based on them. When the variables are the val...
Fuzzy routing
Fuzzy routing is the application of fuzzy logic to routing protocols, particularly in the context of ad-hoc wireless networks and in networks supporting multiple quality of service classes. It is curr...